The Market’s Looking Up!

RMLS just released the November Market Action report showing an extraordinary leap in sales activity. 

When comparing this November to November 2008, closed sales increased a monstrous 72%.  You read that right, 72%!  That is the largest same-month increase on record.  Pending sales also showed a significant 20% gain.

November’s activity, though, was lower than October’s (closed sales down 11%, pendings down 36%), but much of that can be attributed to the season and the weather.  In my experience, there is always a significant activity drop off between October and November as Portland enters the cold, rainy season.  The holidays certainly contribute to lower sales activity, as well.

In my opinion, the market has found its equilibrium.  Inventory has remained relatively stable since July and now measures 7.1 months.  The only negative piece of information, and it’s really no surprise, is the continued decrease in sales price.  Average sales price was down 11% versus November 2008 and the rolling twelve-month average shows a 13% decrease.  However, the month-to-month decreases are happening at a much slower rate (2.5% median sales price decrease versus October).  Again, the market seems to have found its center.

As any home seller will tell you, showing activity is still slow.  The average total market time for a property to sell is now 131 days.  I would expect that number to inch upwards in December, but then start coming down the first quarter of 2010.  My advice to home sellers, hang in there!  It’s just a matter of finding that one buyer.  If your home is priced well and is getting enough exposure, it’s just a waiting game.  An admittedly frustrating waiting game, but a waiting game nonetheless.

Too Cold to Show Property?

It’s cold out there!  I think that’s one thing we can all agree on.  I was watching Monday Night Football with the Green Bay Packers playing Baltimore Ravens on “the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field” and was blown away when the temperature showed 20 degrees.  20 degrees?  The thermometer in my car said 14 this morning.  Portland colder than Green Bay, Wisconsin?  Incredible.

In any case, I’ve been showing houses like crazy.  I think that’s a very, very good thing.  My personal anecdotal evidence says that the market is doing well.  Now maybe my own personal production is not quite enough to base a market report on, but still. 

There are, however, some perils to showing houses in the extreme cold.  I’m one of those guys who can’t seem to do anything while wearing gloves.  Which means lots and lots of numb fingers and dropping of keys.  Better still, I experienced my first frozen deadbolt yesterday.  It took some serious work and a large helping of patience to turn that deadbolt.  Locking the door on my way out was no picnic either.  Perhaps I should start carrying a hair dryer or heat gun in the car. 

There’s more cold weather on the way and, happily, many more homes to show.  My plea to everyone, please be careful out there PDX. 

Lest you end up like this poor soul.