The Market
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged:
RMLS just released the May 2010 addition of Market Action with some interesting facts and figures. As I’ve been saying for quite awhile, Portland seems to have found an equilibrium. The real estate market is more or less holding firm at this point. Of course there will be monthly fluctuations and the occassional anomaly, but overall the market is rather steady. Sales activity, as compared to 2009, is way up. The 2009 market was about as bad as we’ve ever seen, so it’s absolutely no surprise that sales activity has increased so much. Sales activity in 2009 dropped to never before seen depths, so even modest increases will result in large percent changes. For example, if you have two of something and then are given two more you’ve just doubled your haul…by only adding two of whatever we’re talking about. If you have a hundred somethings, though, and you add fifty more somethings, you clearly haven’t doubled your take, right? So with 2009’s sales activity being so low the 2010 increases result in huge percentage increases. What’s really more telling, though, are the hard numbers the actual sales volume as told by units sold. In any case, though, the 44% increase from May 2009 to May 2010 is very welcome news. Closed sales rose sliightly, just over 5%, from April to May. What will be really interesting, though, is how much sales activity increases once the sun comes out. Portland’s market always spikes after the first period of extended sun. I’m expecting the second half of June to be the first real jump in market action, but we’ll see.
At seven months, nventory is at its lowest point since August 2007 which is excellent news. I’ve argued all along that we won’t see the market bounce back until inventory gets under control. We’ve now seen inventory rates right in the seven month range for three consecutive months, which should eventually help prices to bounce back. At the moment, though, prices are still slowly falling. The rolling 12-month review shows prices to have come down just under 10%. The good news, though, is that’s been pretty consistent for quite awhile. I would be extremely surpised to see another major price dip without some monumental outside issue that we haven’t yet seen. Keeping my fingers crossed that we DON’T see such an issue.
Hollywood Farmers Market – Open, Open, Open
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged:
Hollywood Farmers' Market
NE Portland’s favorite farmers’ market is back and better than ever. The Hollywood Farmers’ Market reopened for business this past weekend with a ton of old favorites and a number of brand new offerings. On any given weekend you can browse between 40 and 50 vendor stalls and choose between organic asparagus, micro-craft beer, flowers or you can simply grab an incredible lunch from any one of the numerous food stalls. Yum!
Market hours are 8 a.m. to 1 p.m. Saturdays, May to October, and 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. Saturdays in November until Thanksgiving. Learn more at hollywoodfarmersmarket.org.
Bike Art in The Pearl
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged:
Portland has long been known as an art friendly city. Artists congregate here for inspiration, cheap art studio space, art collectives and due to the city’s support of local art. I love wandering the city and stumbling upon unique sculptures all over town. I shot this quick video just outside The Pearl a few months ago. Yes, this is technically SW 13th and Burnside, so not The Pearl proper, but come on!
I’m sure this piece can be interpreted any number of ways. It can simply be an ode to the city’s favorite mode of transportation. It can be a call out to youth. It can take a dark turn and represent the children who have been hurt (or worse) by careless drivers. I’m not going to get into that, since interpreting art should be done by each beholder. Instead, just enjoy Portland at its finest.
Spring is (almost) here…and so is the HOME BUYING season!
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged: portland homes, portland houses, portland real estate
Get ready to see some “For Sale” signs posted in your neighborhood. Be prepared, though, to see many of them be removed pretty quickly.
Spring is almost here and it’s sure to bring with it a faster paced market. Sales activity has steadily increased the past couple months resulting in a nearly 20% increase versus the same time last year. While this market will never be confused with the frenetic insanity of 2003 or 2004, it does feel like market activity is picking up.
Anecdotal evidence says that home buyers must be prepared for multiple offers, if they aren’t prepared to act fast. A dozen “comparable” homes might be listed in a neighborhood, but it seems like one or two will really stand out and attract buyers. I’m seeing well-priced homes in close-in neighborhoods move very quickly, often selling for at or above asking price. It pays to know the market and to be prepared to move quickly when you find the right house.
Alberta Arts Listings – $250,000 – $375,000
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged:
Homequest has created this killer new plug-in that allows me to create blog pages with live searches. This search is right up most of my clients’ alley. Check out all the single-family houses between $250,000 and $375,000 listed in Alberta Arts. Enjoy!
Home Buying Tips: Wants vs Needs
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged:
This is an excerpt from an email conversation with one of my clients who was having trouble finding the right home:
I want to make sure that we’re doing everything possible to find you the right house. I fully understand what it is you want and why you’re looking in certain areas. It’s true, though, that what you’re looking for happens to coincide with what most people are looking for. Namely a close-in house with soul (usually means a classic style) near cool amenities. Unfortunately, the price to play in some of these neighborhoods is rather significant.
Like we’ve talked about in the past, buying a house is always an exercise in compromise. Whether it’s price or location or style or size, every buyer has to compromise on something. That’s true at every price point, too, by the way. The trick is to figure out what’s most important and try to limit the compromise to the other categories. It might be worth your time to jot down a wants versus needs list. It might seem elementary and a waste of time, but I’ve found that they can often be really helpful. I have clients who want a fireplace, but need a larger yard (they have big dogs or do a lot of outdoor entertaining). Others need a second bathroom, but want a garage. Obviously it’s unique to each buyer.
In your case, your needs list might be something like:
- Cool close-in location near bars, restaurants, etc
- 3 bedrooms minimum
- At least 1 ½ bathrooms
- Price range
- Near MAX or bus line
- Style and soul
- Space for brewing and a teaching studio
- Etc
Your wants might include:
- Formal dining room
- Garage or Basement
- Walking distance to a park
- View
- Etc.
Where the exercise becomes useful is when you really put some hard, honest thought into it and decide whether a dining room, for example, is more or less important than a fireplace. Obviously your list won’t match up exactly with Laura’s, so part of the project is merging both your lists into a final master list that will guide our search. Sometimes it helps to kind of refocus on what’s important. The other thing it can help with is figuring out if you can actually find what you want at a given price. If, for example, you decide that your need is actually even more focused than living in a cool close-in location with amenities and is actually more that you only want to live in Mississippi, Hawthorne or Alberta (again, for example), then that will determine your strategy going forward. If you want a cool close-in location, then the strategy might be to figure out what that actually means and make a list of neighborhoods that fit the bill. There might be some neighborhoods that you aren’t currently really familiar with that, with a little exploration, you find you really like. If, on the other hand, it really is only a handful of neighborhoods, then the strategy might simply be to laser focus on those areas and just understand that it’s going to take some time and be ready to pounce when potential listings come online.
Also, once you come up with a list like that I can actually run a search and see if any houses that match your criteria have sold in the past six months or so within your price range. If a few dozen sold recently, then we know that all we have to do is keep an eye out and, sooner or later, the right one will pop up. If only a handful have sold recently, then we’ll know that it might be a long wait, but that those houses do appear on the market occasionally. If nothing that meets your criteria has sold in the past six months, then we’ll need to reassess the list and/or price range.
Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (whew, that’s a mouthful!)
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged:
Here’s a great site for information on state, local, utility and federal incentives and policies that promote renewable energy and energy efficiency.
Portland Makes the List: Cities Where Renters SHOULD Buy
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged:
A client of mine sent me this excellent article earlier today. Portland is ranked as one of the US cities where renters should really consider becoming home owners. The article is really interesting because it does not say that owning is cheaper than renting. In fact, most of the suggested cities actually have quite a premium – the spread between what you’d pay renting and what your monthly mortgage payment would be - on buying. In San Francisco, for example, a home owner can expect to find a 233% spread premium to own. Sounds crazy, right? That’s down from the fifteen year average spread premium of 293%.
The study looked at today’s spread premium as compared to the city’s fifteen-year average. In cities where today’s spread was significantly lower than the average, the study went on to look at market expectations for the next five years.
Portland, for example, usually has about a 62% premium for home owners. However, that’s down over 16% now. Additionally, Portland is expected to see home prices jump almost 20% over the next five years. That represents an excellent investment opportunity.
The main point is that if you plan on becoming a home owner in the near future, now is the best time to move. With rental rates inching closer to mortgage payments and the prospect of significant real estate appreciation in the next five years, today represents the best value for home buyers.
It’s all a matter of timing…
(…and don’t forget about the first time buyer tax credit that’s set to expire in a few months!)
You can find the actual stats here.
Duplexes: A Missed Opportunity?
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged: duplex, plex strategy, rental rate, triplex, vacancy
I just read an interesting article over at Calculated Risk about apartment vacancies being at an all time high while rental rates continue to decline. I found it interesting because common sense would lead one to assume that as home sales decline, apartment (and other property) vacancies would decline. Afterall, people need to live somewhere!
So where’s everyone going? Research and anecdotal evidence says that many people are A) moving in with family, B) getting roommates, C) grouping up with friends to rent a single large property instead of a number of smaller units (I’ll call this the college model).
Option A’s been around since the beginning of time, much to the chagrin of many parents. Obviously this options comes with a number of positives and negatives. The positives are things like low, possibly no, rent, no utility bills, lower food costs, etc. Some wonderful parents out there will even do their adult childrens’ laundry! Wow. (Thanks, mom! You had me doing my own laundry by the time I was 12. Hmph!)
Option B, the standard roommate option, obviously makes sense. Of course, living with roommates, especially strangers, is always hit and miss, but the monthly savings can’t be denied.
Option C, the college model, is really just the roommate model on steroids. I don’t know where you went to college, but at UCSB living space was at a premium. If you wanted to live anywhere reasonably cool and within beach cruiser shot to campus, you had no choice but to grab a gaggle of your closest friends and rent a place.
What’s interesting, though, is how many people are completely willing to live with roommates and look for ways to share cost when it comes to rentals, but very few even consider doing the same thing while weighing the pros and cons of buying a property. I’m not necessarily advocating that buyers “team up” with friends and buy a house together. While that works in certain situations as an investment model, those types of partnerships are fraught with peril. They can be successfully manouevered, but it takes a certain level of finesse.
No, what I’m talking about is the normal “landlord/tenant” model. Many first time investors have used this strategy to enter the wonderful world of property ownership and have managed to significantly increase their net worths at the same time. The theory is simple, purchase a property that you can afford on your own, but lower your monthly costs by getting a roommate. This can, of course, be done with any type of property from a house to a condo, but it works particularly well with duplexes and triplexes.
Click the link for a quick read on what I call The Plex Strategy.
Too Cold to Show Property?
Filed Under Uncategorized · Tagged: baltimore ravens, green bay packers, MNF, monday night football, portland real estate, snow in portland, the ravens
It’s cold out there! I think that’s one thing we can all agree on. I was watching Monday Night Football with the Green Bay Packers playing Baltimore Ravens on “the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field” and was blown away when the temperature showed 20 degrees. 20 degrees? The thermometer in my car said 14 this morning. Portland colder than Green Bay, Wisconsin? Incredible.
In any case, I’ve been showing houses like crazy. I think that’s a very, very good thing. My personal anecdotal evidence says that the market is doing well. Now maybe my own personal production is not quite enough to base a market report on, but still.
There are, however, some perils to showing houses in the extreme cold. I’m one of those guys who can’t seem to do anything while wearing gloves. Which means lots and lots of numb fingers and dropping of keys. Better still, I experienced my first frozen deadbolt yesterday. It took some serious work and a large helping of patience to turn that deadbolt. Locking the door on my way out was no picnic either. Perhaps I should start carrying a hair dryer or heat gun in the car. 
There’s more cold weather on the way and, happily, many more homes to show. My plea to everyone, please be careful out there PDX.
Lest you end up like this poor soul.
Agent Profile
Jesse Knight specializes in residential real estate with a focus on first time home buyers in the Portland Metro market. Through face-to-face meetings and the targeted use of technology tools, Jesse provides complete representation. Jesse is your consultant, advocate and all around real estate professional.
